Former NSW Labor MP Rodney Cavalier says defeat of Liberal MP Nathaniel Smith 'unfolding' in Wollondilly

The Southern Highland News asked former State Labor MP Rodney Cavalier to scrutinise the results so far.

He said since the 1920s NSW and Australia has allowed "preferential voting".

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"The person who wins is the person who ends up with a majority of preference of most voters," Mr Cavalier said.

"That person may or may not have finished first on primaries; primaries being the number one votes. So that person is the one who is preferred by the majority."

The difference between the NSW and the Commonwealth system is "optional preferential" according to Mr Cavalier.

"You only have to vote number one - you don't have to cast a preference," he said.

"When a vote is 'exhausted' it finishes at the last person it gave a preference to, which could be the primary person or it could be [candidate number] four out of seven."

Therefore, in the seat of Wollondilly Mr Cavalier said the Independent candidate Judy Hannan was elected by the preferences of Labor candidate Angus Braiden.

"Without his preferences she could not have won," Mr Cavalier said.

"If you look at the votes this was a highly possible outcome."

At the time of publication Mr Smith had 14,979 formal votes to Ms Hannan's 12,077 and Mr Braiden's 9,474. In percentage terms that was 33.85 per cent to Mr Smith, 27.29 per cent to Ms Hannan and 21.41 per cent to Mr Braiden.

However, when you add Labor's preference votes to Ms Hannan's percentage she jumps ahead of Mr Smith.

"Yes, that was expected," Mr Cavalier said.

"Before the election, in 2019, the then Liberal candidate Nathaniel Smith got 38 per cent, Judy got about 21 per cent, the Labor Party got 15 per cent and One Nation got 10 per cent. The Greens at this time only got a very small vote.

"To win, Judy Hannan had to go up about five and Nathaniel Smith had to come down five, and the Labor Party had to move into the higher teens," he said.

Mr Cavalier said Angus had "rocketed" to 22 or so, providing the pivotal preferences for Ms Hannan.

"And that's what's defeated Nathaniel Smith," he said.

According to Mr Cavalier, the Greens are "not much consequence" and although the One Nation Party's preferences could have helped Mr Smith they don't because their preferences "exhaust".

"Their preferences don't flow through because their voters voted one nothing and that's it, so they'll die at that point," he said.

"If you look at the first preferences page of the NSW Electoral Commission it's basic arithmetic. Even though there will be some leakage of Labor preferences it will be very, very minor.

"Labor preferences are always the most disciplined in an election so as long as Judy finished second and Nathaniel finished in the low 40s he was in trouble. In fact he has finished in the mid 30s so he's in desperate trouble and he's going to lose this by a couple of thousand or more votes," Mr Cavalier said.

Mr Cavalier said the results revealed that traditional conservatives at both ends of the electorate - in the Southern Highlands and Wollondilly Shire - don't want a "warrior of the right".

"Judith Hannan positioned herself superbly to harness resentment inside the Liberal Party that goes back to 2019 and has built since," he said.

"No other teal was successful anywhere in NSW, why is that? None of John Fahey, Peta Seaton nor Pru Goward had this problem."

Angus Braiden has also polled "exceptionally well" according to Mr Cavalier.

"By lifting the Labor primary from the mid teens to the low 20s he has ensured the defeat of the Liberal MP," he said.

"Given the quality of his campaign, his obvious intelligence and remarkable levels of energy, his result should not come as a surprise."

At the time of publication Mr Smith had not officially conceded. However, Ms Hannan had unofficially claimed the seat of Wollondilly in the 2023 NSW election.

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